Plotting Canada, U.S, and Italy's Wuhan virus bell curves

First, the curves as I plotted them with the data to April 3rd, 2020, just about a week ago:

I expected Canada to peak around April 12th, with an 'exit' around May 16th,2020

I expected Italy to have peaked around April 26th, 2020, with an 'exit' around April 26th.

I expected the U.S to peak around April 13th, 2020, with an 'exit' around May 14th

I think the projections for the U.S and Canada might have been done without sufficient data; the 4 point polynomial projection did not hit the 0 on y-axis and, as a result, I had just extended the data based on the assumption of peak. From now on, I will wait to call for an exit date and peak until the curve hits 0 on the y-axis.

With the new data points of the past few days, I assessed that Canada's new cases have peaked on April 6th, and that the 'exit' is now around the 1st of May 2020, about 2 weeks earlier than my previous forecast. It obviously does not mean that it is the date when society will return to normal; this won't happen until we have a vaccine. However, it means that the pandemic should be controlled then. Note that the orange bar is the date of the first case data projection (e.g. that date and the following are just mirror images of case counts in the past)

My updated calculations show that the U.S would have peaked around April 6th, a week before the earlier prediction. And the 'exit' would now be around May 1st, a full 2 weeks earlier than initially foretasted. I believe that this is do to more drastic measures of self-confinement, as well as more wide-spread testing in the past 3 weeks.

Italy's assessment is no longer possible due to the past few days of data which give an inconclusive trend.